A Number That Hasn't Moved in 50 Years Just Hit Zero

For 24 years straight, Americans sided with Israel. Double digits. Every year.

Not anymore.

Gallup's latest poll shows 41% of Americans sympathize more with Palestinians, 36% with Israelis. The gap's within the margin of error. It's a statistical tie.

This is the first time since Gallup started asking in 2001 that the Palestinian number leads. It's also the first time the numbers are basically even.

What Changed

Three years ago, in early 2023, 54% sympathized with Israelis. That was normal. Israel had held double-digit leads for two decades.

Then October 7, 2023 happened. Right after the attacks, sympathy for Israel spiked to 43%, Palestinians dropped to 9%.

But the gap didn't hold.

By March 2025, it was 46% Israel, 33% Palestine — a 13-point lead.

One year later: parity.

The swing happened fastest among Democrats. Two-thirds now sympathize more with Palestinians. Only 2 in 10 with Israelis.

Independents shifted too. They're now split roughly evenly, like the country as a whole.

Republicans didn't budge. They're still heavily pro-Israel.

The partisan gap is 44 points — the widest Gallup's ever recorded except for 2024.

The Age Split

Young Americans (18-34) broke first. A majority now sympathizes with Palestinians. Only 23% with Israelis.

Americans 65 and older still lean Israel: 49% to 31%.

The divide isn't just political. It's generational.

What It Takes to Move a Number

This wasn't one event. October 7 moved the needle temporarily. Israel's response in Gaza moved it permanently.

The visuals mattered. Social media delivered the destruction in real time. No filter. No delay. Just footage of what was happening.

Youth-led activist movements spread the message on campuses, TikTok, Instagram. Brookings researchers called it "plummeting support" driven by "repeat visuals of Palestinian suffering."

But here's the question: did minds change, or did people just stop watching?

Persuasion means you see something differently. Exhaustion means you stop caring which side you're supposed to pick.

This poll doesn't tell us which one happened. It just tells us the number moved.

Why This Matters

American foreign policy has run on pro-Israel public opinion for half a century. That opinion just hit equilibrium.

Congress still backs Israel overwhelmingly. The White House still sends aid. But the public foundation underneath that policy is shifting.

When a number that defined two generations finally moves, the institutions built on it take longer to catch up.

The poll doesn't predict what happens next. It just records the moment the ground moved.