Khamenei Is Dead. Nobody Knows Who Controls Iran's Missiles.

At 86, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei had survived assassination plots, a war with Iraq, decades of sanctions, and three American presidents who wanted him gone. On Saturday, a joint US-Israeli strike on his office in Tehran killed him. Iranian state media confirmed it Sunday morning. Forty days of public mourning began immediately.

The question that now keeps defence officials awake from Washington to Riyadh isn't about grief. It's about command. Who controls Iran's missile arsenal? Who decides when retaliation stops? As of Sunday evening, nobody has a clear answer.

The IRGC fills the vacuum

Hours after state TV broadcast confirmation of Khamenei's death, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps issued a statement promising the "most ferocious offensive operation in the history of the Islamic Republic" against US bases and Israel.

The language matters. Not the civilian government. Not the Assembly of Experts — the body meant to pick a successor. The IRGC spoke first, spoke loudest, and spoke as though it was already in charge.

A CIA assessment obtained by Reuters before the strikes predicted exactly this: kill Khamenei, and hardline IRGC elements fill the gap. Iran's constitution allows a single supreme leader or a leadership council. Al Arabiya analysts say the Assembly holds formal authority, but real power flows through security institutions. Khamenei reportedly designated three successors before his death. None have been publicly confirmed.

Forbes puts IRGC collective leadership at 35% probability. But the strikes didn't just kill Khamenei. Israeli officials claim seven senior defence figures were also hit — Ali Shamkhani (Defence Council secretary) and Major General Pakpour (IRGC ground forces commander) among them. Politico's take: "No obvious successor."

The strikes continue

Operation Epic Fury (the American name) and Operation Lion's Roar (the Israeli name) entered their second day Sunday with fresh waves targeting Iran's ballistic missile arrays and air defence networks across western and central Iran.

At least nine Iranian cities have been hit since Saturday. Confirmed targets in Tehran alone include the Ministry of Intelligence, Ministry of Defence, the Atomic Energy Organization, and the Parchin military complex. Explosions were reported near Bushehr, though analysts at CSIS say there's no confirmed direct strike on the nuclear reactor. Bandar Abbas, home to Iranian Navy assets, was also struck.

Trump described the campaign as "massive and ongoing." CNN's analysis was blunt: "These are not limited strikes." The Atlantic went further, noting that while Trump called on the Iranian people to rise up, "no serious armed rebel force exists in Iran, no coalition assembling to march into Tehran."

Iran hits back wide

Tehran's retaliation didn't stay bilateral. Missiles and drones targeted Israel and four Gulf Arab states hosting US military bases: Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, and the UAE. Missile debris killed at least four civilians in Suwayda, Jordan. One civilian died in the UAE.

US officials reported no American casualties and minimal damage. But the geographic spread changed the conflict's character overnight. Qatar told companies to send staff home. Eight countries shut their airspace. Over 444 flights were grounded. Air India and IndiGo suspended or rerouted services — eight million Indian workers in the Gulf now face direct danger.

The IRGC began broadcasting Strait of Hormuz closure orders via VHF radio. "No ship is allowed to pass," the EU's naval mission Aspides confirmed hearing. Major oil companies suspended shipments. If enforced, the closure blocks roughly 25% of the world's seaborne oil trade.

Markets were closed for the weekend. The math isn't complicated. Brent settled at $73 on Friday. Barclays projects $80 if supply disruptions hit. Forbes modelled the worst case: proxy networks activate, Hormuz partially closes, oil crosses $100. Monday's open will tell us which scenario traders believe.

The Pakistan squeeze nobody's watching

While the world's cameras point at Tehran, a separate war grinds on next door. Pakistan's air force struck Kabul and border regions Friday, targeting TTP and ISIS-K camps. Afghan forces shot down a Pakistani fighter jet over Jalalabad. The pilot was captured alive.

The connection to Iran isn't abstract. Just days before getting bombed, Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi was urging Pakistan and Afghanistan toward dialogue, invoking Ramadan as a time for restraint. That mediation channel is now destroyed. The mediator is under bombardment.

Pakistan faces a compounding crisis. War on its western border with Afghanistan. Its other western neighbour, Iran, in flames. Oil prices spiking while its energy-dependent economy was already strained. The Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline, a lifeline project, now sits in a conflict zone. India condemned Pakistan's Afghan strikes and supported Afghanistan's sovereignty, applying diplomatic pressure at the worst possible moment.

The Times of India framed it directly: "First Taliban, now Iran: why it could be a double whammy for Pakistan." China, invested in both conflicts through CPEC and Iranian energy partnerships, expressed "deep concern" on both fronts simultaneously. Saudi Arabia tried to mediate the Pakistan-Afghanistan dispute even as Iranian missiles hit Gulf targets.

The diplomatic picture

The UN Security Council met in emergency session Saturday night. Secretary-General Guterres warned of "igniting a chain of events that nobody can control in the most volatile region of the world." Russia and China co-demanded the session. Iran's ambassador called for the US and Israel to be held accountable.

No resolution emerged. A US veto on any condemnation resolution is expected.

The global split hardened. Canada, Australia, and Ukraine backed the strikes. The UK's Starmer confirmed British planes were "in the sky." Russia condemned the operation and demanded a ceasefire. Turkey tried to walk both sides, condemning strikes on Iran as a sovereignty violation while calling Iran's Gulf attacks "unacceptable." Indonesia offered to send its president to Tehran to mediate. Oman, long the quiet channel between Washington and Tehran, said it was "shocked."

Macron called for the escalation to stop but also demanded Iran "engage in good-faith negotiations to end its nuclear and ballistic missile programs."

What comes next

Monday brings three tests. Markets open, and the oil price reaction sets the economic tone for the week. Iran's succession signals will determine whether the country has a functioning chain of command or a revolutionary guard running on rage and autonomy. And the Strait of Hormuz gets its first real enforcement test: broadcast threat, or actual blockade?

The deeper question is one nobody in a situation room can model. Iran's population spent 2025 and early 2026 in revolt. Government forces killed over 7,000 protesters according to HRANA. A second wave of student-led protests erupted February 21. Trump told Iranians to "rise up and overthrow the regime."

So what happens inside a country whose leader is dead, whose military command is fractured, whose cities are burning, and whose people were already in the streets before the first bomb fell?

That's not a military question. It's a human one. And nobody has the answer yet.