The US Spent a Year Blocking Solar. Solar Is About to Surpass Coal Anyway.

Solar power is on track to pass coal in total installed US capacity before December. The administration that tried to stop it is now trying to take credit.

Here's the timeline that makes this story absurd.

The block

In July 2025, Interior Secretary Doug Burgum issued a rule requiring his personal signature on every solar and wind permit touching federal land. Not a department review. Not a committee. One man's signature on every project.

The result: 20 commercial-scale solar projects frozen in permitting limbo. The 118,000-acre Esmeralda Energy Center in Nevada — seven individual solar projects bundled together — effectively canceled. Developers stalled. Construction halted.

That same budget year, Republicans used their reconciliation bill to accelerate the phase-out of solar tax credits for both developers and homeowners. Burgum directed his agency to weigh fossil fuel and nuclear alternatives during permitting if they generated more energy per acre. The message was clear: solar isn't welcome here.

The numbers that didn't listen

While Washington blocked permits, the market kept building.

The Energy Information Administration's February 2026 report tells a story the administration didn't write. In 2025, utility-scale solar capacity grew by 27,738 MW. Small-scale rooftop solar added another 6,277 MW. Together, that's 34,000 MW of solar in a single year — during a presidency hostile to it.

Wind added 6,174 MW. Battery storage surged 58.4%, adding 15,775 MW.

Total renewable capacity growth in Trump's first year back: 55,809 MW. Fossil fuels and nuclear combined: 773 MW.

That's a 72-to-1 ratio.

For 2026, the EIA projects even faster growth. Solar alone will add 44,470 MW of utility-scale capacity. Battery storage: 24,269 MW. Wind: nearly 11,900 MW. Total clean energy additions: about 86,000 MW — the largest single-year capacity addition in over two decades, nearly doubling 2025's 53 GW.

By December, solar's total installed capacity will exceed coal's 163,426 MW. First time ever.

Meanwhile, coal lost 4,397 MW of capacity in 2025. Oil lost another 559 MW. No new nuclear came online.

The pivot nobody expected

On February 4, Katie Miller posted on X: "Solar energy is the energy of the future... We must rapidly expand solar to compete with China."

Miller isn't a random commentator. She's a veteran Trump aide, married to White House Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller. She worked for Elon Musk's DOGE. She's deep MAGA.

She spent all of February posting pro-solar content. She shared EIA graphs showing solar's dominance. She amplified polls. So did Kellyanne Conway — Trump's first campaign manager.

Then Politico obtained a confidential strategy memo. Miller and Conway's advocacy was "aligned with a campaign by members of the nation's largest renewable energy lobby group to MAGA-fy solar power."

The American Clean Power Association — the country's biggest clean energy industry group — had launched something called "American Energy First." The plan: use Conway's polling firm to show solar's popularity with Trump voters, then drive op-eds, podcast partnerships, and ads in right-leaning publications.

Conway's polling found 75% of likely voters in five red states — Arizona, Florida, Indiana, Ohio, and Texas — agreed the solar industry should "strengthen and increase our energy supply." A separate poll of 800 Republican voters by Fabrizio, Lee & Associates found 51% supported utility-scale solar. That number jumped to 70% if the panels weren't made in China.

Miller denied being paid by the industry groups. But the timing is interesting.

The thaw

Last week, the Interior Department began reviewing those 20 frozen solar projects. The Esmeralda Energy Center is back on the table. A DOI spokesperson told the Washington Examiner they're applying "consistent standards" and "strengthening accountability."

That's a long way from "every permit needs Burgum's signature."

The Solar Energy Industries Association has also started paying conservative influencers directly. Former SEIA president Abigail Ross Hopper said last week on the podcast Energy Empire: "We paid some super conservative influencers during H.R. 1. That's what it takes. We shouldn't be embarrassed about it."

One hire: C.J. Pearson, a conservative influencer with 180,000 TikTok followers, now posts pro-solar content for SEIA.

What's actually happening

Strip away the politics and you see something simple. Solar got cheap. Cheaper than coal, cheaper than gas in most markets, cheaper than anything except existing hydropower. The economics won before the policy caught up.

Wind and solar combined produced 15.7% more electricity than coal last year. Renewables hit 25.7% of total US generation — up from 24.1% the year before, now second only to natural gas.

Every watt of new generating capacity added in 2026 will be renewable or battery storage. Every single one. Fossil fuels and nuclear will actually lose net capacity this year.

The political class is doing what it always does: figuring out how to stand in front of a parade that's already moving.

The China angle

There's a real tension buried in this story. Trump imposed tariffs of 25-100% on Chinese solar cells and is pursuing anti-subsidy duties on panels from India, Indonesia, and Laos. The policy goal: force solar manufacturing back to America.

First Solar — the largest US-based panel manufacturer — commissioned the poll that Conway shared. Their pitch to Republicans isn't "save the planet." It's "beat China."

That reframe changes the politics completely. Solar becomes a national security play, not an environmental one. The industry is betting that wrapping panels in the American flag works better than wrapping them in green.

The numbers suggest they're right. Republican support for solar jumps 19 points — from 51% to 70% — when you add "American-made, no China" to the question.

What to watch

Solar will surpass coal this year regardless of what Washington does. The question is whether this political pivot sticks — whether "American Energy First" becomes real policy or stays a lobbying campaign.

Twenty frozen projects are under review. Tax credits are being phased out. Tariffs are making imported panels more expensive. The administration is simultaneously blocking and embracing solar, often in the same week.

The energy transition doesn't wait for politicians to pick a side. It just keeps getting cheaper.