Three Wars, One Crisis: How Iran, Pakistan, and Afghanistan Became a Single Conflict

Afghanistan's Air Force struck Pakistani military bases on Monday, hitting Nur Khan Airbase in Rawalpindi and the 12th Corps headquarters in Quetta. Afghanistan's Defence Ministry claimed 32 Pakistani soldiers killed. Hours earlier, Hezbollah fired precision rockets and drone swarms at an Israeli missile defence site south of Haifa. And across the Gulf, Brent crude surged 13% to $82 a barrel as 150-plus tankers sat anchored outside a Strait of Hormuz that Iran has effectively shut down.

Three theatres. One week. The connections between them explain why this crisis is more dangerous than any single headline suggests.

The chain reaction

Start with a timeline. On February 28, the US and Israel launched Operation Epic Fury against Iran. Khamenei was killed. Seven senior military commanders died with him. Iran retaliated across the Gulf — missiles hitting Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Doha, and Bahrain. At least five people died and 120 were injured in those strikes alone.

Then the dominoes: Iran's Foreign Minister Araghchi had been actively mediating between Pakistan and the Taliban before the bombs fell. He'd invoked Ramadan solidarity, urged dialogue. That diplomatic channel evaporated overnight. Iran is now fighting for its own survival.

Pakistan had already declared "open war" with Afghanistan on February 22. By March 1, its air force was bombing Kabul and Bagram. On March 2, Afghanistan hit back — drone strikes on Rawalpindi, deep inside Pakistan. Pakistan's PM spokesman slammed the door: "There won't be any talks. There's no dialogue. There's no negotiation."

With Iran's mediator gone, Saudi Arabia distracted by Gulf defence, and China limited to rhetoric, nobody is brokering peace.

Hezbollah breaks the seal

Monday's Hezbollah strikes on northern Israel transformed the conflict's geometry. The group said it was avenging Khamenei's death. Israel responded with airstrikes across Lebanon, including Beirut's Dahiya suburb. Mass evacuations followed in southern Lebanon.

This matters beyond the immediate violence. Iran spent decades building a "ring of fire" — proxy forces positioned to activate if Tehran came under attack. Even with Khamenei dead and the IRGC's command structure degraded, the network functions. Hezbollah didn't need orders from Tehran. It acted on its own logic.

For Israel, this means a two-front war. For the region, it means the conflict can't be contained to Iran no matter how precise the American and Israeli strikes claim to be.

The oil chokepoint

The Strait of Hormuz carries roughly 20% of the world's oil. It's effectively closed. IRGC forces claimed to have struck three UK and US tankers near the strait on Monday. The UK Maritime Trade Operations office confirmed four separate security incidents — two vessels hit by projectiles, one near-miss, one crew evacuated.

Maersk responded by pausing all sailings through both the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb — the Red Sea chokepoint already disrupted by Houthi attacks. That means the entire Middle East maritime corridor is compromised. Ships are rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope, adding weeks and cost.

Brent settled around $76-80 after its initial spike. Goldman Sachs projects $110 if the closure holds. OPEC+ announced a modest 206,000 barrel-per-day output increase. Analysts doubt it's enough.

Pakistan's impossible position

Pakistan is the hinge of this crisis — the country where all three conflicts converge.

Its western border is an active war zone. Afghanistan's drone strikes on Rawalpindi hit military infrastructure near the capital. Pakistan claims 400-plus Taliban fighters killed; Afghanistan says 52 of the 78 dead in three days were civilians, mostly women and children. Eighteen civilians, including 11 children, died in a single strike on Bihsud District in Nangarhar.

Meanwhile, Pakistan imports most of its oil through routes now threatened by Hormuz's closure. Dawn newspaper called oil "Pakistan's biggest economic risk" from the Iran crisis. Edible oil imports alone cost $3.7 billion in FY25. Analysts warn of fuel price hikes and an inflationary spiral echoing the Russia-Ukraine economic shock of 2022.

And the BLA attacked Gwadar port last week — eight militants and two soldiers killed — threatening China's Belt and Road corridor through Pakistan. India, watching from the east, condemned Pakistan's Afghan strikes and backed Afghan sovereignty. India's investment in Iran's Chabahar port is also at risk from the Iran strikes.

Pakistan can't sustain fighting on its western border while absorbing an oil shock and keeping its eastern border calm. Something has to give.

The succession question

Iran's Assembly of Experts must choose a new Supreme Leader. Three candidates are in the frame: hardliner Gholamhossein Mohseni-Eje'i, Asghar Hejazi, and Hassan Khomeini — the revolution founder's grandson. Mojtaba Khamenei, the late leader's son, is also a possibility.

An interim leadership council is running things. Ali Larijani and Parliament Speaker Qalibaf are directing defence decisions. Qalibaf appeared on national television Monday saying Trump and Netanyahu "crossed a red line and will pay for it."

Who emerges determines everything. A hardliner means continued escalation, deeper proxy activation, and no diplomatic off-ramp. A pragmatist like Hassan Khomeini could open the door to negotiations — but would face enormous internal pressure not to appear weak while Iran is being bombed.

FM Araghchi told Al Jazeera the process should be complete "within days." The Assembly of Experts has 88 members. Getting them to agree during an active war won't be simple.

How different regions see this

The framing gaps are stark. Western outlets lead with "strikes on Iran" and centre the nuclear threat justification. CNN and the NYT frame Trump's four-week timeline as strategic planning. The school strike in Minab that killed 148 people gets reported but isn't centred.

Al Jazeera consistently uses "US-Israel attacks on Iran." Its coverage centres civilian casualties and regional destabilisation. The Minab school leads their reporting.

Chinese state media, per analysis from The Diplomat, functions as "a mouthpiece for the Iranian regime" — framing the strikes as a violation of sovereignty and the "blatant killing of a sovereign leader." But behind the rhetoric, Chinese-flagged vessels are still transiting Hormuz. Beijing's pragmatism outlasts its principles.

Indian media frames this as "a double whammy for Pakistan" — centring Pakistan's strategic vulnerability rather than the humanitarian cost. Indian outlets are covering Pakistan's overextension with barely concealed satisfaction.

Pakistani media frames its Afghan operations as justified self-defence. Afghan and international outlets centre civilian casualties — the children in Nangarhar.

Same facts. Radically different stories.

What to watch

Five things will determine where this goes in the next 48 hours.

First, Hezbollah's next move. Monday's strikes were a signal. If they escalate further, Israel faces a ground-war decision in Lebanon while still bombing Iran. The IDF said it was "vigorously attacking Hezbollah throughout Lebanon" — that language suggests preparation for something bigger.

Second, tanker verification. If the IRGC's claims of three burning tankers prove true, insurance rates will collapse and Hormuz seals completely. Oil could gap to $90 or higher.

Third, Pakistan-Afghanistan trajectory. With Afghanistan now striking Pakistani military bases near Rawalpindi, this is no longer a border skirmish. It's a war between two nuclear-armed neighbours (Pakistan) and a battle-hardened insurgent-turned-government (Afghanistan). The escalation ladder has fewer rungs left.

Fourth, US markets. Monday's Asian session saw a Brent spike to $82 and tumbling stock futures. How Wall Street opens Tuesday morning (3:30am NZST) will signal how traders assess the duration risk of a four-week campaign.

Fifth, Iran's succession. Speed equals stability. A quick, unified selection calms internal tensions and creates a negotiating partner. A protracted fight signals fracture — and fractured regimes are unpredictable.

The arc of instability stretching from the Mediterranean through Iran to Afghanistan-Pakistan is fully lit. Reuters called it "a wide swathe of Asia — from the Gulf to the Himalayas — now in flux." That's not hyperbole. It's geography.

Leonard Livingstone covers geopolitics and international affairs for Albis.