Iran's New Supreme Leader, $100 Oil, and Pakistan's Invisible Crisis: How Three Wars Became One

Iran's Assembly of Experts picked the hardliner. Mojtaba Khamenei, the 56-year-old son of the Supreme Leader killed in the war's opening strikes on February 28, is now the third ruler of the Islamic Republic. Oil broke $100 a barrel within hours. And 2,000 kilometres east, Pakistan is fighting a war almost nobody is covering — while paying for a war it isn't part of.

These three facts — the succession, the oil shock, and the invisible conflict — aren't separate stories. They're one system.

The Succession That Closed a Door

The Assembly of Experts met under airstrikes. AP reported some clerics had their offices bombed during deliberations. They chose confrontation anyway.

Mojtaba's never held elected office. Never served in government. What he has is a deep relationship with the IRGC, which pledged "complete obedience" within hours. Hezbollah did the same.

Some Iranian political figures pushed back. A supreme leader's son inheriting the position drew comparisons to the shah's dynasty the 1979 revolution overthrew. But wartime logic overruled those objections. The clerical establishment wanted a leader who'd fight, not negotiate.

Trump had already called Mojtaba "unacceptable." He told ABC News that Iran's next leader "is not going to last long" without his approval. Israel vowed to target any declared successor. Both now face a fork: strike him and validate Iran's narrative that this war aims to destroy the Islamic Republic, or accept a leader they've publicly rejected.

The window for a pragmatist pick — someone who might've offered a diplomatic off-ramp — is closed.

Oil's Biggest Day in Six Years

Brent crude surged more than 20% on Monday's open. It briefly touched $114 a barrel before settling around $107. Al Jazeera reported it was the first time oil passed $100 since Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Prices have climbed roughly 50% since the war began on February 28, when Brent sat near $60.

Three forces drove the spike. The Hormuz closure, now in its second week, has cut tanker traffic to near zero. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said one large tanker passed through safely — an "early sign" of reopening. That's one ship. The strait normally handles 50 per day. Iraqi, Kuwaiti, and Emirati producers have cut output because they've nowhere to store it. QatarEnergy halted LNG production entirely.

The Mojtaba appointment added a fear premium. Markets read it as a signal that this war won't end soon.

Goldman Sachs has floated $150 as a worst-case scenario. Trump dismissed the spike on Truth Social, calling it a "very small price to pay" for safety. His Energy Secretary called it "temporary."

For Americans, $100 oil means pain at the pump. For Pakistan, it means something closer to economic collapse.

Pakistan: Fighting One War, Paying for Another

Pakistan raised fuel prices by 20% on March 6. Petrol hit 321 rupees per litre, diesel 335. Finance Minister Aurangzeb projected a monthly oil import bill of $600 million — a staggering figure for an economy already under IMF supervision.

This is how the Iran war connects to Pakistan-Afghanistan. Pakistan doesn't border Hormuz, but depends entirely on Gulf oil that flows through it. Every dollar added to a barrel of Brent tightens the vise on a country that's also fighting a ground war.

That ground war is now in its third week. Pakistan claims 583 Taliban fighters killed and 242 checkposts destroyed. The Taliban say 55 Pakistani soldiers dead and seven border posts captured. Neither figure's verified. What's certain: Pakistan struck targets across Panjshir, Kabul, Badakhshan, Herat, and Kapisa. Satellite imagery shows devastation at Bagram Air Base.

The Karachi Stock Exchange fell another 6.3% last week. Three petrol shipments were expected Monday. The IMF review is now threatened by war-driven economic deterioration.

And almost nobody outside South Asia is paying attention.

The Two-Tier Strait

Something remarkable happened at Hormuz this week. Chinese-managed vessels began passing through by broadcasting their identity — essentially declaring "we're Chinese, don't shoot." China deployed a naval flotilla, including the Type 052DL destroyer Tangshan, near the strait's entrance.

Iran had announced on March 5 that the closure applies only to US, Israeli, and Western-allied shipping. Not to China. Not to Russia.

This is a two-tier energy system being built in real time. Chinese ships get oil. Western ships don't. If it holds, it's a proof of concept for a parallel energy architecture that could outlast this war entirely. Le Monde reported Chinese shipping companies "trying to unblock" their supply chains through direct identity signalling — a diplomatic solution conducted at the level of individual cargo vessels.

The Gulf States' Dilemma

Saudi Arabia intercepted a drone targeting the Shaybah oil field — one of the world's largest reserves. Riyadh issued its sharpest warning yet, dismissing President Pezeshkian's promise to halt Gulf strikes as fiction and warning Iran would be the "biggest loser" if attacks continued.

The problem: Iran's civilian government and military aren't speaking the same language. Pezeshkian apologised on state TV for Gulf strikes. Fresh missiles hit Bahrain and Qatar minutes later. The IRGC answers to the Supreme Leader, not the president. And now the Supreme Leader is someone the IRGC hand-picked.

Both sides have started hitting desalination plants — water infrastructure in a region where water is survival. Iran claims the US struck a plant on Qeshm Island, cutting supply to 30 villages. Iran then hit a Bahrain desalination facility. In a desert region dependent on engineered water, this is existential.

The GCC pledged to "take all necessary measures including responding to the aggression." The US ordered all non-essential personnel and families to leave Saudi Arabia and eight other diplomatic missions. Foreign Policy wrote that Iran's attacks on Gulf states "shattered the hard-won regional rapprochement that had taken hold over the last three years."

The Mediators Nobody Expected

With Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Iran all consumed by the Gulf war, the usual mediators for Pakistan-Afghanistan have vanished. Turkey, Malaysia, and Indonesia stepped into the vacuum — sending defence delegations to broker a ceasefire.

CNN-News18 reports Pakistan gave conditional consent to Muslim-country mediation. The conditions haven't been made public. Bangladesh, China, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, and Uzbekistan have also called for a ceasefire.

New diplomatic architecture, born because the old one collapsed. Saudi and Qatari mediators can't broker Afghan-Pakistani tensions when Iranian missiles are landing on their own soil.

What the Numbers Say

Ten days of war in Iran: at least 1,332 killed according to Al Jazeera's tracker. Seven US service members dead. Two IDF soldiers killed in Lebanon — the first Israeli military deaths. Over 517,000 displaced in Lebanon. Roughly 10,000 civilian structures damaged across Iran. Thirty health facilities hit.

In Pakistan-Afghanistan: 66,000 Afghans displaced. Over 232,000 Afghans have returned from Pakistan and Iran in 2026 — many involuntarily. Pakistan is simultaneously deporting Afghan refugees and fighting a war that creates more of them.

Brent crude: $107 and volatile. Pakistan's stock market: down double digits in two weeks. The US House voted 219-212 against halting the war — a seven-vote margin that signals growing domestic pressure.

What to Watch Tomorrow

Mojtaba Khamenei's first 48 hours will reveal whether unified IRGC-clerical leadership increases or decreases Gulf attacks. If the IRGC escalates under a sympathetic supreme leader, Saudi Arabia's threshold for military entry gets tested.

Oil's settling price through Tuesday trading matters more than Monday's spike. If Brent holds above $100, the economic cascade hits harder — especially in oil-importing nations across South and Southeast Asia. Bangladesh has already implemented fuel rationing.

The Turkey-Malaysia defence delegations arriving in Pakistan represent the first credible ceasefire channel since the war began. Their reception determines whether the invisible war stays invisible — or gets a path toward ending.

And at Hormuz, the question isn't whether the strait reopens. It's whether it reopens for everyone, or only for ships flying the right flag.